It was expected that Iran would respond to Israel's killing of its senior officers inside its consulate in Damascus, for several reasons, the most important of which was establishing the red lines of deterrence between the two parties, lines that Israel crossed by targeting an Iranian diplomatic institution.
This is a precedent that has not occurred before in the controlled conflict between the two parties, with the controls of political realism on the part of Iran, and the ceiling of American interest on the part of Israel. The Iranian response was consistent with the idea of controlling the balance of deterrence, and crossed an important red line that Iran had not crossed before, which was striking Israel with a weapon launched from inside Iranian territory.
What is new and constitutes a precedent in what we witnessed yesterday evening, is this Iranian targeting of Israel - openly - from within the Iranian borders, not from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq or Yemen, the four Arab countries that Iran has taken in recent years as a starting point for managing its conflict with Israel, and a platform for launching any... A blow you want to direct at her.
This is Iran’s breaking of one of the most important red lines drawn between it and Israel. In response to Israel's breaking of another red line, it indicates that the strategic conflict between the two sides has begun to move from the scope of hidden, indirect war to explicit, direct war.
Anyone who underestimates the value of this attack on the Palestinian cause is either one of those who do not understand the psychological aspect of wars, or one of those who do not understand the fragility of Zionist society.
Iran may have dared to make this direct response - which is unprecedented - by taking advantage of Netanyahu’s weakened position inside Israel, the problems in his relations with the Americans, and his exhaustion in the Gaza war, such that it is difficult for him to open a direct war front with Iran in these circumstances. For fear of other fronts opening up against it, especially from southern Lebanon and the Golan. In addition, it is in Iran's political interest to strike Israel directly during the Gaza War, in order to consolidate its credibility and position as the most important military ally of the Palestinian resistance.
If Israel responds to the Iranian attack by striking Iranian territory, things will deviate from the usual deterrence game between the two parties, and controlling the scope of the conflict will become difficult in the future, especially for the Americans who are keen to control the course and extent of the conflict.
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The implications of the Iranian attack on Israel can be summarized from several angles, including its impact on the Gaza war, and on the Palestinian situation in general, and then its impact on the Arab context, especially the countries of the eastern Red Sea and the eastern Mediterranean. Finally, consider whether this Iranian attack on Israel is the beginning of a confrontation with a prolonged, multi-objective, multi-faceted war, or whether it will force the two sides to return to their traditional rules of engagement.
From the perspective of the war in Gaza, it can be said: Any Iranian strike on Israel - no matter how symbolic - is beneficial to the people of Gaza, as it relieves them of the burdens of the barbaric war that Israel is waging against them. The people of Gaza benefited from this Iranian-Israeli confrontation from day one. Immediately after targeting the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Israel began withdrawing most of its forces from Gaza, in what appears to be a preventive preparation for any confrontation on the northern borders with Lebanon and Syria, given Iranian strategic control over these two fronts.
The Gaza front can benefit from many other benefits from this confrontation, including:
The Israelis were forced to stop the war in Gaza; To avoid fighting on two fronts: the Gaza front in the south, and the Lebanon and Golan front in the north. This is what the Israelis are always keen on. The Americans were forced to pressure to stop the war; To avoid an uncontrolled regional explosion, especially since America’s position in the region has reached rock bottom, due to its shameful complicity in the Gaza war. Increasing Iranian military and technical support for the Palestinian resistance in quantity and quality. To spite and retaliate against Israel. This may lead to a qualitative development in the armament and performance of this resistance.
From the perspective of the Palestinian issue in general, it can be said; There is no weapon more powerful against Israeli settler colonialism in Palestine than the weapon of fear and panic, and spreading panic in Israeli society is the most important result of the Iranian attack on Israel yesterday evening.
Anyone who underestimates the value of this attack on the Palestinian cause is either one of those who do not understand the psychological aspect of wars, or one of those who do not understand the fragility of Zionist society, which is a society fabricated from human diaspora coming from all over the world, and most of its members hold dual citizenship. Any feeling of insecurity and reassurance could push a large portion of this artificial society to flee, and thus the Zionist project would erode and begin to disappear.
The Israeli newspaper (Jerusalem Post) indicated two days ago that a state of hysteria and panic has prevailed in Israeli society, since the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate. She stated that the Israelis are withdrawing cash from bank machines, storing water, and buying all the electricity generators available in the market, in panic and fear.
Years ago, the Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University conducted a poll, the results of which were published by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, which revealed that about a quarter of Israelis are considering emigrating from Israel permanently as soon as Iran announces that it has obtained a nuclear weapon.
From the perspective of the Arab strategic situation, it can be said: All the Arab countries east of the Red Sea and the Mediterranean are caught in the crossfire between Iran and Israel, whether they like it or not. That's because:
Either countries with military and political forces allied with Iran and supportive of the Palestinian cause are motivated to integrate into the battle; Support for Iran and Gaza. Or countries steeped in dependence on Israel, as they are not far from the possibility of retaliation by Iran and its allies, and we heard an Iranian threat to one of these countries recently. Or countries that have American military bases, as they fear that their land will turn - as a result - into one of the arenas of this war, in which it has no choice but to do so. Or countries bordering Israel, they are trapped in geography
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